Source Themes

Generalizing the intention-to-treat effect of an active control from historical placebo-controlled trials: A case study of the efficacy of daily oral TDF/FTC in the HPTN 084 study
In many clinical settings, an active-controlled trial design (e.g., a non-inferiority or superiority design) is often used to compare an experimental medicine to an active control (e.g., an FDA-approved, standard therapy). One prominent example is a recent phase 3 efficacy trial, HIV Prevention Trials Network Study 084 (HPTN 084), comparing long-acting cabotegravir, a new HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) agent, to the FDA-approved daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) in a population of heterosexual women in 7 African countries. One key complication of interpreting study results in an active-controlled trial like HPTN 084 is that the placebo arm is not present and the efficacy of the active control (and hence the experimental drug) compared to the placebo can only be inferred by leveraging other data sources. In this article, we study statistical inference for the intention-to-treat (ITT) effect of the active control using relevant historical placebo-controlled trials data under the potential outcomes (PO) framework. We highlight the role of adherence and unmeasured confounding, discuss in detail identification assumptions and two modes of inference (point vs. partial identification), propose estimators under identification assumptions permitting point identification, and lay out sensitivity analyses needed to relax identification assumptions. We applied our framework to estimating the intention-to-treat effect of daily oral TDF/FTC versus placebo in HPTN 084 using data from an earlier Phase 3, placebo-controlled trial of daily oral TDF/FTC (Partners PrEP). Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.
Testing clinical selection criteria for intraoperative transoesophageal echocardiography in isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery
There is a lack of evidence associating intraoperative transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) use with improved outcomes among coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery subpopulations.This matched retrospective cohort study used a US private claims dataset to compare outcomes among different CABG surgery patient populations with vs without TOE. Statistical analyses involved exact matching on pre-selected subgroups (congestive heart failure, single vessel, and multivessel CABG) and used fine and propensity-score balanced techniques to conduct multiple matched comparisons and sensitivity analyses.Of 42 249 patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery, 24 919 (59.0%) received and 17 330 (41.0%) did not receive TOE. After matching, intraoperative TOE was significantly associated with a lower, 30-day mortality: 2.63% vs 3.20% (odds ratio [OR]: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71–0.92; P=0.002). In the subgroup matched comparisons, intraoperative TOE was significantly associated with a lower, 30-daymortality rate among those with congestive heart failure: 4.20% vs 5.26% (OR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.66–0.94; P=0.007) and among those undergoing multivessel CABG with congestive heart failure: 4.23% vs 5.24% (OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.65–0.97; P=0.025), but not among those undergoing multivessel CABG without congestive heart failure: 1.83% vs 2.15% (OR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.70–1.02; P=0.089, nor any of the remaining three subgroups. Among US adults undergoing isolated CABG surgery, intraoperative TOE was associated with improved outcomes in patients with congestive heart failure (vs without) and among patients undergoing multivessel (vs single vessel) CABG. These findings support prioritised TOE allocation to these patient populations at centres with limited TOE capabilities.
Efficient Algorithms for Building Representative Matched Pairs with Enhanced Generalizability
Many recent efforts center on assessing the ability of real-world evidence (RWE) generated from non-randomized, observational data to produce results compatible with those from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One noticeable endeavor is the RCT DUPLICATE initiative. To better reconcile findings from an observational study and an RCT, or two observational studies based on different databases, it is desirable to eliminate differences between study populations. We outline an efficient, network-flow-based statistical matching algorithm that designs well-matched pairs from observational data that resemble the covariate distributions of a target population, for instance, the target-RCT-eligible population in the RCT DUPLICATE initiative studies or a generic population of scientific interest. We demonstrate the usefulness of the method by revisiting the inconsistency regarding a cardioprotective effect of the hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) clinical trial and corresponding observational study. We found that the discrepancy between the trial and observational study persisted in a design that adjusted for the difference in study populations' cardiovascular risk profile, but seemed to disappear in a study design that further adjusted for the difference in HRT initiation age and previous estrogen-plus-progestin use. The proposed method is integrated into the R package match2C.
Instrumental variables: To strengthen or not to strengthen?
Instrumental variables (IVs) are extensively used to estimate treatment effects when the treatment and outcome are confounded by unmeasured confounders; however, weak IVs are often encountered in empirical studies and may cause problems. Many studies have considered building a stronger IV from the original, possibly weak, IV in the design stage of a matched study at the cost of not using some of the samples in the analysis. It is widely accepted that strengthening an IV tends to render nonparametric tests more powerful and will increase the power of sensitivity analyses in large samples. In this article, we re-evaluate this conventional wisdom to bring new insights into this topic. We consider matched observational studies from three perspectives. First, we evaluate the trade-off between IV strength and sample size on nonparametric tests assuming the IV is valid and exhibit conditions under which strengthening an IV increases power and conversely conditions under which it decreases power. Second, we derive a necessary condition for a valid sensitivity analysis model with continuous doses. We show that the Γ sensitivity analysis model, which has been previously used to come to the conclusion that strengthening an IV increases the power of sensitivity analyses in large samples, does not apply to the continuous IV setting and thus this previously reached conclusion may be invalid. Third, we quantify the bias of the Wald estimator with a possibly invalid IV under an oracle and leverage it to develop a valid sensitivity analysis framework; under this framework, we show that strengthening an IV may amplify or mitigate the bias of the estimator, and may or may not increase the power of sensitivity analyses. We also discuss how to better adjust for the observed covariates when building an IV in matched studies.
Matching One Sample According to Two Criteria in Observational Studies
Multivariate matching has two goals: (i) to construct treated and control groups that have similar distributions of observed covariates, and (ii) to produce matched pairs or sets that are homogeneous in a few key covariates. When there are only a few binary covariates, both goals may be achieved by matching exactly for these few covariates. Commonly, however, there are many covariates, so goals (i) and (ii) come apart, and must be achieved by different means. As is also true in a randomized experiment, similar distributions can be achieved for a high-dimensional covariate, but close pairs can be achieved for only a few covariates. We introduce a new polynomial-time method for achieving both goals that substantially generalizes several existing methods; in particular, it can minimize the earthmover distance between two marginal distributions. The method involves minimum cost flow optimization in a network built around a tripartite graph, unlike the usual network built around a bipartite graph. In the tripartite graph, treated subjects appear twice, on the far left and the far right, with controls sandwiched between them, and efforts to balance covariates are represented on the right, while efforts to find close individual pairs are represented on the left. In this way, the two efforts may be pursued simultaneously without conflict. The method is applied to our on-going study in the Medicare population of the relationship between superior nursing and sepsis mortality. The match2C package in R implements the method.
Differential Effects of Antimalarial Drugs on Parasite Clearance Rates Are Reflected by Plasmodium falciparum Ring Ratio
The location of Plasmodium falciparum within the body is determined by the life cycle of the parasite; young rings are in the peripheral blood, whereas mature parasites are sequestered in deep tissues. We can calculate a “ring ratio,” the proportion of parasites in the periphery to the total number of parasites in the body. Artesunate acts on all parasite life stages, whereas quinine is effective only on sequestered parasites. Children with cerebral malaria (CM) treated with artesunate clear parasites faster than those treated with quinine. In this study, we established the relationship between ring ratio and parasite clearance rate and used the ring ratio to determine if the benefit derived from artesunate treatment could be attributed to its broader effect on life cycle stages. Ring ratios were calculated for 400 hospitalized children with CM in Blantyre, Malawi between 2010 and 2019 (quinine: 2010–2013, artesunate: 2014–2019). In both treatment groups, parasite clearance rates were positively associated with the ring ratios, with a stronger association in the artesunate era than the quinine era. In the quinine era, an increase of 1-unit log10 difference between parasitemia and plasma P falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (a proxy for ring ratio) resulted in a 0.27-unit increase in the parasite clearance rate, whereas in the artesunate era an equal increase resulted in a 0.41-unit increase (P = .04 for the difference).This analysis provides in vivo evidence supporting the hypothesis that more rapid parasite clearance rates in artesunate recipients are due to its superiority over quinine in killing ring-stage parasites.
Predictors of intraoperative echocardiography: analysis of the society of thoracic surgeons database
Intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is associated with improved outcomes after cardiac surgery, but unexplained practice pattern variation exists. This study aimed to identify and quantify the predictors of intraoperative TEE use among patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) or cardiac valve surgery. This observational cohort study used The Society of Thoracic Surgeon (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data to identify and quantify the predictors of intraoperative TEE use among adult patients aged 18 years or more undergoing either isolated CABG or open cardiac valve repair or replacement surgery between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2019. Generalized linear mixed models were used to measure the relationship between intraoperative TEE and patient characteristics, surgical volume, and geographic location, while accounting for clustering within hospitals (primary analysis) or surgeons (secondary analysis). Of 1,973,655 patients, 1,365,708 underwent isolated CABG and 607,947 underwent cardiac valve surgery. Overall, intraoperative TEE was used in 62% of surgeries. The primary hospital-level generalized linear mixed models analysis demonstrated that the strongest predictor of intraoperative TEE use was the hospital where the surgery occurred—with a median odds ratio for TEE of 10.13 in isolated CABG and 5.30 in cardiac valve surgery. The secondary surgeon-level generalized linear mixed models analysis demonstrated similar findings. Intraoperative TEE use (vs lack of use) during surgery was more strongly associated with hospital and surgeon practice patterns than with any patient-level factor, surgical volume, or geographic location.
Statistical matching and subclassification with a continuous dose: characterization, algorithm, and application to a health outcomes study
Subclassification and matching are often used to adjust for observed covariates in observational studies; however, they are largely restricted to relatively simple study designs with a binary treatment. One important exception is Lu et al.(2001), who considered optimal pair matching with a continuous treatment dose. In this article, we propose two criteria for optimal subclassification/full matching based on subclass homogeneity with a continuous treatment dose, and propose an efficient polynomial-time algorithm that is guaranteed to find an optimal subclassification with respect to one criterion and serves as a 2-approximation algorithm for the other criterion. We discuss how to incorporate treatment dose and use appropriate penalties to control the number of subclasses in the design. Via extensive simulations, we systematically examine the performance of our proposed method, and demonstrate that combining our proposed subclassification scheme with regression adjustment helps reduce model dependence for parametric causal inference with a continuous treatment dose. We illustrate the new design and how to conduct randomization-based statistical inference under the new design using Medicare and Medicaid claims data to study the effect of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) during CABG surgery on patients' 30-day mortality rate.